Monday, 27 April 2015

Tory Majority?

All the polls point towards no party gaining a majority. It has Labour and the Conservatives gaining roughly the same number seats, The SNP being the most significant third party with the other parties getting the rest (the Liberals, Greens, UKIP, Plaid Cymru and the parties of Northern Ireland). While the polls do point to a hung parliament I rather think we may see a Conservative majority, if not very close to one. Why? The polls are generally wrong in times like these. Labour are more left leaning than they were under Blair and Brown and I think a lot of people will say one thing to the pollsters but when in the voting booth will actually vote blue.

It reminds me of the 1992 election. Neil Kinnock, the then Labour leader, was ahead in the polls and on course for a majority. Yet when voting time came not only did he fail to get a majority, it was in fact John Majors Conservatives who manged to get in with a majority. The polls were completely wrong. This time around the Conservatives are on level pegging to Labour in the polls. One of the reasons people in 1992 ended up voting for the Conservatives was uncertainty. The Conservatives were hardly popular at the time. A recession had hit, unemployment had shot up, the housing market was in the tank, interest rates had gone up and people were generally feeling worse off. Still, people voted for them for the belief that it would actually be worse under Labour, distrusting their generally Socialist policies. I think people will feel the same again for this years election in that they won't trust Ed Miliband and will end up voting for David Cameron. Similar to 1992 a lot of business leaders have voiced their concerns with a potential Labour Government along with many of the large newspapers. An uncertain atmosphere is present once more and when people are uncertain they generally vote blue.

I also think the SNP may not get their projected seats. The SNPs objective is to destabilise the union of the UK and get Scotland out of it. I think that will worry a lot of Scottish people who know they have a a far better economy by being a member. The majority of Scotish people voted against independance and I think they will once more weigh up if they really trust Nicola Sturgeon. Its not just Scotish peoples opinions, English opinion may turn and if held to unreasonable ransoms may wish to start parting with Scotland. 

Still, all of this remains to be seen and we will have to watch come 7th May. Fundamentally it doesn't matter; we're all fubar'ed whichever tribe gets in.

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